What is more likely to come — A dystopia or a utopia?
But Humanity, in its desire for comfort, had over-reached itself. It had exploited the riches of nature too far. Quietly and complacently, it was sinking into decadence, and progress had come to mean the progress of the Machine — E. M. Foster
Entropy is often cited as a fundamental principle of nature. As time progresses, physical systems tend to move towards a state of greater disorder. This principle ensures that after birth, as I get nourishment from my mother’s breasts, although I grow and initially seem to defy the principle of entropy, my cells will eventually disintegrate, and at some point, I shall cease to exist.
Entropy is the guarantor that I will be mortal.
The core idea behind the concept of increasing entropy is that as time progresses, there are far more ways for physical systems to become disordered than ordered. Said another way, there are more ways for things to go wrong.
Take a set of coins. If you shuffle them on a tabletop, they could all land heads up. While this is a completely plausible state and could occur, the likelihood of it happening is much smaller than having a mix of fifty heads and fifty tails.
An unsettling possibility is that in the room where you are sitting, all the air molecules might randomly end up in one corner, leaving you gasping for air sitting on the other side. It is not a conscious decision on their part, but rather a result of random causality.
Although the chances of the above scenario happening are, once again, minuscule, they are not zero. The scenario could happen. It is improbable but it is not impossible.
Perhaps it is one of those unsolved mysteries of a healthy person sitting in a closed room being found dead that no one has been able to crack the case. Given eight billion people living on this planet, over one thousand generations, who knows what rare, and unexplainable events can occur? If something can occur, given enough time, it shall.
The tendency of physical systems to transition from an ordered to a disordered state is the reason a movie (a sequence of events) viewed in reverse feels strange. In our past experiences, we have not seen a balding head slowly sprouting hair and ending up with a head full of lush hair.
If entropy is the ultimate guardrail that gently propels physical systems in the direction of chaos, it is intriguing to consider the potential futures for human progress. The specific question is whether, starting from our current state, in the long run would we end up in a worse state (i.e., a dystopia) or a better state (i.e., a utopia), and if one is more likely than the other?
Consider a utopia, or a future that is better than our present. Although history tells us that we are better off in many ways than we were before, this may not be the norm. A malnourished and mistreated baby will still grow, but beyond a certain point, it will lag behind its peers who were treated better.
So, even though we have historically moved towards a better state, this trend may not continue. For humanity to keep improving its lot, much more from us would be required. The characteristics we would need for the masses to have are wisdom, cooperation, equity, sustainable practices, tolerance, a growth-oriented mindset etc.
Do we have the psychological wherewithal for these qualities to flourish?
If there are any indications, such as a decline in average IQ, heads bent over smartphones engaged in endless scrolling, the answer may be a no.
Unfortunately, evolution also prefers the path of least resistance and does not optimize our behavior for the future (which requires wisdom). Coupled with a notion that technological advances can override the basic tenets of natural selection (e.g., higher IQ and better fitness may no longer be an advantage to survive and reproduce), two could be a fatal combination and could set the stage for our downfall.
Now, let us consider chances for dystopia, i.e., a state of humanity that would be worse off than it is now.
The increasing complexity of our society, combined with the challenges posed by technological advancements and the competition for limited resources, could potentially steer us in this direction. There are far more ways for humanity to devolve into a state that is worse than to evolve into a state that is better.
Initially, the condition of society might appear to be improving, but beyond a certain point, it may find ways to limit its progression.
So, while it is possible for society to evolve towards either a utopia or a dystopia, the principle of entropy working with human nature (to select the path of least resistance, or the tendency to discount the future) would suggest that without conscious effort and cooperation, moving towards dystopia is a more likely future.
Ciao.
