Managing Consequence of the Bell Curve
As long as inequality and other social problems plague us, populists will try to exploit them — Kofi Annan
Bell curves are ubiquitous, characterizing the myriad phenomena in the universe. Their presence is more pervasive than even the deities we revere. Given their universality, it could be argued that bell curves warrant a place of honor in our places of worship.
Consider any collection of entities — people, trees, or even the seemingly mundane egg consumed at breakfast. Quantify any of their attributes — height, lifespan, weight, or yolk color. In the distribution of these quantified characteristics, a bell curve emerges. The population’s dominant tendency is to cluster around the average, with instances decreasing as we move away from this central value.
While the bell curve is a phenomenological representation of the outcomes of forces causing variations in a population, its existence can be leveraged to interpret our world. This concept can be further elucidated with some examples.
Evolution signifies the transformation in the traits of living organisms over time, propelled by the mechanism of natural selection. This mechanism necessitates variations within a population, which typically follow a bell curve distribution. By interacting with these differences and selectively favoring certain traits within the constraints of the surrounding environment, gradual changes in species and the process of evolution are facilitated.
Within a societal context, if one views variations in Intelligence Quotient (IQ), represented by a bell curve, as inherent outcomes of the process from a single cell developing into a fully grown human, these differences result in a stratified society that necessitates management.
Throughout our life’s journey, we soon realize that future outcomes are not predetermined but often adhere to a bell curve. To predict potential futures, methodologies have been devised to generate multiple possible scenarios. Financial planners utilize the Monte Carlo method, testing the robustness of our current financial status under various assumptions of future market returns. Weather models, through a process known as ensemble forecasting, are executed multiple times to provide us with probabilities of what may happen tomorrow, such as a 30% chance of rain.
In all these instances, it’s not necessary to understand the underlying causes of the bell curve that depicts the non-uniformity in a population. However, the existence of this pattern can be utilized to interpret the world’s behavior and guide us in navigating its complexities.
In anticipation of the bell curve’s existence, we are counseled to remain optimistic yet prepare for the worst, maintain a positive outlook while exercising caution, and face the future fearlessly, all the while staying aware of potential risks.
In the personal sphere, the existence of the bell curve not only adds intrigue to life (after all, who desires monotony day after day), but it can also lead to unexpected setbacks, disrupting our meticulously planned future. We’ve all heard tales of individuals leading healthy lifestyles — exercising regularly, maintaining a balanced diet, minimizing various life stressors — only to be struck by a severe illness. Conversely, there are instances where one of the longest-living individuals was a smoker. Go figure.
Interestingly, the existence of the bell curve also leaves its mark on the divergent perspectives that Democrats and Republicans hold regarding the management of differences.
In a society riddled with various inequalities — financial, intellectual, physical — that can be represented by the bell curve, Democrats advocate for government policies and regulations in areas such as the economy, education, and healthcare, all with the aim of reducing these disparities. They are more inclined to believe that individuals facing adversity are often victims of circumstances beyond their control. Efforts are made to establish social safety nets to ensure that people maintain at least a minimum standard of living and are not left behind. While it’s acknowledged that some may exploit these policies, the overall positive impact on public welfare resulting from these measures is believed to outweigh the occasional misuse.
Conversely, Republicans often attribute individuals’ hardships to their own actions. For instance, they might argue that those in need of assistance are in their predicament due to a lack of motivation or ambition. They hold the belief that with enough determination, one can overcome their current circumstances. They argue that providing aid to the less fortunate may inadvertently discourage them from improving their situation. Republicans tend to advocate for policies that limit government intervention in the economy, education, and universal healthcare, and often favor business-friendly policies such as tax reductions. They justify their policies with the argument that these measures would actually help reduce inequality. Perhaps their perspective is that in the long run, a reliance on Social Darwinism will lead to the overall improvement of society, even if it means sacrificing a few individuals along the way.
The crux of the matter is that the inherent variations represented by the bell curve, and the strategies for managing them, fundamentally underpin the ideological differences between Democrats and Republicans.
An additional consideration is that without external intervention, minor variations represented by the bell curve tend to amplify. The convergence towards the mean (and the pursuit of equality) necessitates external management. Socialism embodies the effort to counteract the bell curve’s tendency to widen, while capitalism, through its laissez-faire approach, accelerates its expansion.
Revisiting the ubiquity of the Bell Curve, our very existence is indebted to its presence, as nature inherently resists uniformity. Following the Big Bang, the formation of galaxies and the stars within them can be attributed to minor density fluctuations. Assisted by gravity, these fluctuations led to an escalating concentration of mass at certain locations, which ultimately gave rise to galaxies and stars.
If differences cannot be eradicated, is the bell curve the fundamental obstacle in dreams of utopia? Stay tuned.
Ciao.
