Confronting the Left Tail of Frequency Distributions in Life
Things fall apart. Not because they are flawed, but because they exist
Summary: When a wine cooler broke unexpectedly, it became a lens through which to reflect on the impermanence of all things. It was a reminder that from appliances to human existence, life expectancy follows probabilistic curves, and we do not quite know when something will stop functioning. This essay explores the emotional asymmetry we encounter when luck fails us, and we find ourselves holding a card drawn from the left tail of the distribution.
The Universe Doesn’t Owe Us Durability
The universe is ruled by impermanence. Everything is in flux. From galaxies down to the incessant ticking of kitchen clocks, all things are in motion — changing, evolving, decaying, dying. The stars are subject to this law: born from the gravitational collapse of gas clouds, they blaze with nuclear fire for millions or billions of years, fighting the very force that gave them birth — gravity, until the fuel of their alchemy runs dry. Then, surrendering to gravity once again, they collapse into white dwarfs, or neutron stars, or black holes. That which begins must inevitably end.
So too with us. We are born, pass through childhood, climb into the vigor of youth, and, if fortune favors us, step slowly into old age. Somewhere along that arc, we sometimes sense ephemeral moments of connection to others, to meaning, to the vastness of the universe. We strive to feel content, to feel aligned, even as we sense the impermanence that cradles all we know. And yet, despite this deep and constant rhythm of change, and us being aware of it, we are often startled when something breaks.
Take, for instance, our wine cooler. It stopped working the other week — eighteen months after we bought it. A trivial event, perhaps. An appliance gone dead. One day it was bound to happen. But my reaction wasn’t trivial. Irrationally, I felt betrayed. A small current of fury and disappointment welled up. For no good reason, I was convinced: this thing had broken too soon. It broke before I got my money’s worth.
Why the feeling? I don’t know the statistical distribution of lifespans for the brand of wine cooler we chose. I never researched the failure rates (such statistics are hard to come by in the first place) or asked how many months of faithful service one could reasonably expect. Yet I carried inside me an assumption that my experience fell on the left tail of the distribution.
When Life Falls on the Left Tail
In statistics, when we speak of the “left tail” of a distribution (for example normal or Gaussian) distribution, we refer to those rare events that fall well below the average. If the average lifespan of a wine cooler is, say, five years, then an eighteen-month failure would land far to the left of the bell curve — an unfortunate outlier; a black swan. And when we end up in the left tail of an experience, whether it’s an appliance breaking, or a car accident, or a bad medical diagnosis, we often feel personally slighted. Cheated, even. Not just by the manufacturer, or the system, but by luck itself. The question we inevitably ask, why us?
Strangely, this asymmetry doesn’t cut both ways. When things go unexpectedly well — when the car runs smoothly for 20 years, or we enjoy unusually robust health deep into our 90s — we seldom feel the same intensity of emotion. There may be gratitude, yes, but rarely outrage at the universe’s unfair generosity. The emotional tilt is clear: the left tail stings, while the right tail quietly slips by, often unremarked.
This asymmetry in feeling may stem from how we view fairness, especially where money is involved. Money, after all, is hard-won. It represents time, effort, maybe sacrifice (for most of us, something spent here must be balanced by pinching there). When we spend it, particularly on something tangible, a refrigerator, a wine cooler, we subconsciously expect a certain return. Not just utility, but durability. When the object fails us “too soon,” it isn’t just an inconvenience; it feels like a violation of that unspoken contract with the universe.
What is “Okay”?
But here’s the strange thing: I don’t even know what “ok” would have been. Would I have felt satisfied if the cooler had lasted three years? Five? I have no internal compass for this. All I know is that eighteen months wasn’t enough. Period. And that vague dissatisfaction, I suspect, is partly because I had to pay money to replace it. Impermanence, when it comes with a price tag, seems like a double whammy.
Still, I forget — again and again — that things break. That everything breaks. The material world is governed by entropy. Disorder accumulates. Springs wear out, compressors stall, plastics crack. And yet, every time something I own becomes a ghost, I am caught off guard. We know that nothing lasts forever, but somewhere deep within, we act as if the things we buy have a moral obligation to do so.
Confronting the Truth That Things Break
Maybe that is why the cooler’s death irritated me so much — it forced me to confront a universal truth. One that applies not just to wine coolers, but to friendships, careers, our own bodies. Things fall apart. Not because they are flawed, but because they exist. Perhaps the greater surprise would be if they didn’t.
I find myself wishing that each product came with a little probability distribution chart printed on its packaging. Expected lifespan: mean = 4.2 years, σ = 1.1 years. 10% chance of failure within 2 years. If we knew the PDF — the probability density function — of an item’s life expectancy, maybe we could calibrate our expectations better. Then when something failed early, we’d know: this was a one-in-ten-year event. Not betrayal. Just bad luck. But such a world is not going to exist.
But even if that information was available, would it truly help? Or would we still feel bruised when randomness worked against us?
This all seems absurdly philosophical for a malfunctioning appliance. But perhaps small instances like that are an invitation to reflect. Each break, each crack in the surface of space and time, reminds us that everything we touch, everything we use is temporary. The lesson is to recognize the fragility and value of things while they still work.
A New Cooler a New Mindset
So, the wine cooler was gone. We bought a new one. This time, I’m trying something different: If it serves us for years, we’ll quietly appreciate the stretch of good luck. And if it breaks early, perhaps I’ll remember this moment, and say: Ah. This is just the left tail. Perhaps on average, event falling on left and right tails average out (if they were random, they would).
Life, too, has its own distribution. Some of us will experience long spans of health, wealth, and companionship. Others will meet misfortunes early. Most will fall somewhere in the wide middle. But wherever we land, it helps to remember that the curve is impersonal. The universe isn’t singling us out. The universe is not vindictive. It is simply unfolding without an end in mind.
And maybe, just maybe, being aware of this can make us a little more generous — with our expectations, our money, and with our sentiments towards broken machines.
Ciao, and thanks for reading.
